Crash course

Haven't written much lately but I have a valid excuse: Macroeconomics.  Macroeconomics is the study of the national economy as a whole or its major components. It deals with the "big picture" of the nation's economic activity and explains the mechanics of BBP, economic growth, inflation, (un)employment and other economic indicators.  That's the easy part - the difficult part is understanding the underlying principles as well. This means that you have to understand how the government's monetary and fiscal policies contribute or slow down economic growth.  What happens to Demand when the interest rate increases or decreases?  Why do Central Banks have to monitor money reserves? What happens to the money supplies when the Demand for Goods and Services increase and why people tend to save and put money on their bank accounts when you're heading for a recession?

The challenging part of this course is that we only have two days to assimilate a course which is normally taught over the course of a year.  Wannabe economists spend an entire year on these topics - we get the crash course. And man, did we crash... Talking about crashes:
As with every module, we also had to write a paper and show that we can apply the theories and insights acquired during the course.  Mine was on the economic growth of Ireland between 2005  and 2012. I had to look in the eye of the Celtic Tiger and explain how a booming economy headed straight for recession and deflation.  How come that one of the poorest countries in the European Union turned itself into the fourth richest country in the EU over a period of ten years and all of sudden went bust? They didn't really go bust like Greece but still.... they are looking at a serious deficit now and yours sincerely had to come up with a couple of recommendations on how to run a balanced budget and stimulate growth again.

We'll see if I have convinced our teacher or rather confused him but I must admit I enjoyed this module. When I now hear on the radio that the Belgian citizens have put billions on their bank account in 2009, I know that this is because they are preparing for tough times. If the newspaper writes that running a balanced budget is key in 2010, this means that debt stabilization is on top of the government's agenda.  And if you have to choose between running balanced budgets or fiscal policies, you must not ignore the system of automatic stabilizers.

Like the Russian playwright Checkhov put it so well: "knowledge is of no value unless you put it into practice". Let this be our ground rule for 2010 and may it be a year full of knowledge, wisdom, prosperity and happiness.

Funky

Tomorrow, I take up a new assignment at a Dutch multi-utility in Middelburg (Zeeland). My responsibilities center on rolling out an Enterprise Social Software platform, creating awareness on "het nieuwe werken" and engaging my co-workers in a conversation.  Het nieuwe werken is the Dutch cover term for Enterprise 2.0.  It is a three-pillar program that focuses on 1. New facilities, 2. Human Resources and 3. Technology. 

Fortunately they only asked me for the latter two as building new offices is not my strongest asset.  I'm very curious to see how I can fit the program into the job. Well, I guess that macro-economics is not the first to spring to mind but certainly, other program modules will help me to deliver a better job.  Looking at the agenda, I look forward to the 2 modules on managing people and organizations, market and customer understanding and the April course on market strategy.  Although this a seen it, been there, done it thing - I am convinced that I will learn new insights and practices that are off-the-shelf implementable.  Talking about insights, we have to do a 360° assessment - again a seen it, been there done thing.  But this was 3 years ago so I can benchmark myself now.  On the brink of turning 35 - I wonder how some of my old friends see me.  Because there is no role for boss, direct reports and colleagues in my particular situation I asked Captain Starbucks, DC Comics, Boy Wonder and Zappos to evaluate me.   Together with some close friends they will evaluate me on a variety of personality-related topics. 

Curious to see how my personal profiling and self-assessment is put in a perspective of them assessing (and perceiving) me.  In the light of 2009 coming to an end, it might be useful to use that input and add some extra bullet points to my new year resolutions list. And just FYI, even in 2010 the internet will still be hot -  it's going to be an exciting year!

 

black swans do exist

What is - that is statistically speaking - the chance that a right-brainer gets a good grade on a typical left-brain discipline like statistics? Well depends on the perspective you want to take.  If you see statistics as a science...then, the odds that us - RB - get a good grade is quite low.  It requires analytical, sequential and other left-brain neuron connections to work out the equations.  On the other hand - if you look at it as an art and take the more creative approach to it... somewhere along the dotted line some funky magic happens.  It took me a while to grasp that statistics is all about the way you "define" your statements and hypotheses - and then use the numbers and graphs to illustrate your point.  Having a background in linguistics and communications of course does help to beef up my case.  It is about interpretation pur sang and that's my playground.  Never thought that I would be so into the matter - I now see a wonder wheel of outcomes and interpretations, associations and translations, hypothesis and proof...samples and self fulfilling prophecies. And black swans do exist: they are called google, amazon.com as well as Lehman Brothers, AIG, Ford and GM... what were the odds that these companies - please fill out your anwser on the dotted line.
Statistics is about connecting the dots but in today's world, the dots lead everywhere.  Who gives a banana about statements such as "the likelihood of ocurring... the probability that or we have 95% confidence that". You only need one exception to the rule to make the bubble explode.  That's why change is the new normal... and why statistics all of sudden makes sense.  Numbers are great when you are living in an ideal world - but then again, there are no black swans in an ideal world.